Situational Report of the Protests in Mozambique

What’s happening in Mozambique? Background

 

The situation in Mozambique is on a knife’s edge. The country is contending with the violent aftermath of a disputed election. The 9th October presidential vote pitted Frente de Libertaçao de Moçambique (Frelimo) candidate Daniel Chapo, (who was selected in May to succeed outgoing President Felipe Nyusi), against pastor and former radio host Venâncio Mondlane, a 50-year-old newcomer to politics who made an unsuccessful bid to become mayor of the capital Maputo in 2023. Mondlane ran as an independent anti-establishment candidate with the support of a small party founded by Frelimo defectors, Partido Optimista pelo Desenvolvimento de Moçambique (Podemos).

On August 10th, Mondlane declared victory on the grounds that a partial parallel count conducted by his team gave him a majority of votes, even if he provided little evidence to substantiate his claim. On 16 October, Mondlane called on his supporters on various platforms, including social media where he has hundreds of thousands of followers, to join protests and stage general strikes against the handling of the elections, capitalizing on credible allegations from civil society groups and local and foreign observers that the process had been rife with irregularities and fraud.

Then, late on 18 October, unknown gunmen murdered Mondlane’s lawyer, Elvino Dias, who was preparing a legal challenge to the election results, and Paulo Guambe, a Podemos parliamentary candidate, as the two men traveled together in a car in Maputo. The brazen attack sent shockwaves through Mozambique and drew worldwide condemnation, including from UN Secretary-General António Guterres, the U.S., and the European Union.

 

Frustrations among Mondlane’s supporters with Frelimo’s rule have morphed into a popular outcry.

 

A first nationwide protest, on 21 October, was eventually dispersed by heavily armed security personnel who fired live ammunition at demonstrators in several cities and tear gas canisters at journalists interviewing Mondlane in Maputo. The candidate subsequently fled to a secret hideout, possibly in neighboring South Africa, from where he now regularly livestreams talks to his Facebook followers. Three days later, the official election results proclaimed Chapo the winner with 71% of the vote with Mondlane standing at 20%.

Since the double assassination and the announcement of Chapo as Mozambique’s next president, frustrations among Mondlane’s supporters with Frelimo’s rule morphed into popular outcry against Frelimo’s rule, on a scale unprecedented in the country’s recent history. Several opposition parties – other than Podemos – joined Mondlane’s calls to protest. Demonstrations have been taking place in most provinces, with Maputo, Nampula, and Zambezia among the hotspots. Gatherings in the capital have drawn thousands and paralysed the city, including the port, though police have prevented large crowds from forming. Acts of vandalism have also been reported, with protesters destroying four Frelimo party offices across the country and a police station in Nampula.

 

Source: The East African

 

On 7 November, the unrest reached a high point when Mondlane encouraged his supporters to march on Maputo. Protesters and security forces engaged in running battles throughout the day, leaving at least five people dead.

 

Intermittent Internet Shutdown

​​The restrictions, beginning in late October and persisting intermittently, have impacted mobile network connectivity while fixed-line services remain operational. Authorities justified the measures as necessary to prevent the spread of content promoting "violent demonstrations" and "social destabilization."

 

Utilization of Ushahidi Platform

The Ushahidi platform was deployed by a partner organization in Mozambique called DECIDE Plataforma. DECIDE Platforma is a non-profit Mozambican Civil Society Organization dedicated to monitoring democratic processes in Mozambique. Its main goal is to promote research on the political barometer in Mozambique and work with communities to ensure greater inclusion of the population in the decision-making process.

Through the partnership, Ushahidi trained DECIDE’s staff on using the Ushahidi platform and setting up and running a situation room throughout the election period. Through Ushahidi’s support, they set up an instance of our open-source platform, the Mozambique Elections 2024 to help citizens report any incidents around the elections. Citizens were allowed to report issues around Counting and Results, Voting Issues, Security Issues, Staffing Issues, Political Rallies, Positive Events, Polling Station Admiminstration, Public Opinions and Media Reports through SMS, WhatsApp, Mobile App, and the Web. Social listening on social media mainly X (formerly Twitter) where many citizens shared their displeasure about the election process, while also keeping track of missing persons, incidences of police brutality, internet shutdown, human rights violations, protests, and help being provided by various human rights, legal and medical agencies.

The deployment has so far pulled in more than 13,000 organic tweets (and counting). The reports have been classified and categorized using Artificial Intelligence Models that have achieved 75% accuracy (so far).

 

Breakdown of the Reports Received so far

 

 

Violent Protests	50.61%
Police Brutality	17.47%
Help Provided	16.89%
Internet Shutdowns	8.55%
Peaceful Protests	5.68%
Missing People	0.58%
Human Rights Violations	0.22%

 

Word Cloud Analysis of the Reports

 

The word cloud reveals key themes such as election dissatisfaction, police brutality, justice for Mozambicans, and a strong demand for respect for human rights. Predominant phrases highlight a determined movement of Mozambicans advocating for a country free from the ruling party that has held power since independence. Citizens voice their frustration with the elections, describing them as rigged and fraudulent. The word cloud also underscores widespread calls to end police brutality, killings, and human rights violations during the protests.

 

Sentiment Analysis of the Reports

 

The sentiment analysis of Mozambique's protest data reveals a predominantly negative emotional tone, reflecting widespread turmoil and dissatisfaction. The findings are outlined as follows:

1. Anger (52%)

• Dominates the sentiment profile, signaling frustration and resentment.
• Rooted in public outrage over allegations of electoral fraud and government repression.

 

2. Sadness (49%)

• Reflects a deep sense of loss and despair among citizens.
• Likely driven by casualties, the tense political climate, and eroded democratic trust.

 

3. Fear (49%)

• Highlights concerns for personal safety and uncertainty about the future.
• Exacerbated by violent crackdowns on protests.

 

4. Disgust (42%)

• Shows disapproval and revulsion toward corruption, perceived electoral manipulation, and the government’s handling of dissent.

 

5. Happiness (34%)

• Indicates moments of solidarity, resilience, or hope for eventual justice and reform.

 

Key takeaway

The analysis underscores Mozambique’s highly polarized and volatile emotional landscape, dominated by negative sentiments. This highlights the urgent need for:

• Transparent dialogue.
• Accountability measures.
• Efforts to rebuild trust and hope among citizens.

 

Breakdown of Sentiment Analysis by Report

 

• Police Brutality reports show high levels of anger 69% and sadness 64% with very low happiness scores 20%
• Peaceful Protests have the highest happiness scores 59% and the lowest negative emotions
• Internet shutdown show moderate levels across all negative emotions
• Human Rights violations show very high sadness 80%, fear 80% and anger 73% scores
• Violent Protests show relatively balanced negative emotions, with anger being slightly more prominent

The data highlights a complex landscape marked by diverse incidents. Police brutality and human rights violations evoke the strongest negative emotional responses, while peaceful protests, despite the overall tension, sustain relatively more positive sentiment scores.