Mozambique Situational Report

Mozambique is currently experiencing unrest following the disputed general elections held in October 2024. Concerns about electoral fraud have led to nationwide protests against the ruling party, Frelimo, which has governed the country since independence. Daniel Chapo was sworn in as Mozambique's president following the disputed October 2024 elections. The opposition has publicly declared its intent to paralyze Mozambique in response to his inauguration. The protests have been met with a forceful response from authorities. According to Reuters, more than 300 people have died since the protests began. The government's crackdown has included deploying the army to restore order and imposing a ban on protests.

 

Mozambique tense as opposition leader returns from exile

The return of opposition leader Venâncio Mondlane from self-imposed exile has intensified tensions. Upon his arrival in Maputo, security forces fired tear gas to disperse hundreds of his supporters gathered near the airport.

 

Prison Break Amidst Unrest

Amid the turmoil, a prison break occurred in the capital, Maputo, where at least 6,000 inmates escaped from a high-security facility on Christmas Day. This event has further strained the country's security situation.

 

International Concerns and Economic Impact

The unrest has drawn international attention, with neighboring countries like South Africa closing border crossings due to the violence. Economically, theinstability has affected operations such as those of Syrah Resources, whose graphite mining activities in Mozambique have been disrupted, leading to loan defaults and financial challenges.

 

Call for Dialogue and Resolution

Amnesty International and other organizations have called on Mozambican authorities to end the violent crackdown and engage in dialogue to address the underlying issues driving the protests. The situation remains volatile, with ongoing demonstrations and a heavy security presence across the country.

The unrest has also impacted the economy, with businesses facing disruptions. For instance, Syrah Resources, a graphite mining company, had to suspend operations due to the instability, leading to financial challenges.

 

Utilization of the Ushahidi Platform

Social listening efforts, mainly on X (formerly Twitter), have been underway to understand the current situation and peoples’ views and sentiments. Through social media, many citizens have shared their sentiments on the protests and the general situation in the country. The platform has also been keeping track of missing persons, incidences of police brutality, internet shutdowns, human rights violations, protests, and help being provided by various human rights, legal, and medical agencies.

Through Ushahidi’s deploymentDECIDE Platforma, we have pulled about 3000 organic tweets in the last two weeks. The reports have been classified using Artificial Intelligence Models that have achieved 75% accuracy (so far).

 

 

Breakdown of the Reports in January

 

Word Cloud Analysis of the Reports

The word cloud highlights election dissatisfaction, police brutality, justice for Mozambicans, and a call for respect for human rights. The predominant phrases collectively illustrate a determined movement of Mozambicans calling for a country free from the incumbent and ruling party since independence. Citizens expressed their dissatisfaction with the elections, claiming that they were rigged and fraud. The word cloud detects many phrases calling for an end to police brutality, killings, and human rights violations during the protests.

 

Sentiment Analysis of the Reports

The sentiment analysis of social media posts from Mozambique paints a vivid picture of the collective emotional state, reflecting the ongoing political, social, and economic turmoil in the country. The sentiment scores highlight a landscape dominated by negative emotions, with anger, fear, and disgust taking center stage, while happiness remains relatively low. Anger dominates the sentiment profile at 51.15% underscoring widespread public frustration and dissatisfaction. This is likely fueled by political unrest, allegations of electoral fraud, and dissatisfaction with the government’s response to protests and economic challenges. Fear is a close second at 45.98%, reflecting concerns over personal safety, political instability, and economic uncertainty. Disgust comes third at 41.79% signifying strong disapproval, particularly towards issues such as corruption scandals, governance failures, and perceived injustices. The "tuna bond" scandal and ongoing economic hardships are also contributors to this sentiment. Sadness comes fourth at 36.3% reflecting despair experienced by Mozambicans grappling with social and economic difficulties, such as displacement from natural disasters, unemployment, and the impact of recent violence. While positive, happiness is significantly lower than the negative sentiments coming last at 23.45%. It stems from isolated moments of hope, such as international support, community resilience, and potential economic opportunities like the LNG projects.

 

Implications of the Sentiment Analysis:

• A call for action: The dominance of negative sentiments signals the urgent need for dialogue, transparency, and tangible solutions to address public grievances.
• Restoring trust: Honest communication, anti-corruption measures, and effective crisis management will be crucial to rebuilding public trust.
• Leveraging optimism: Despite the challenges, happiness on the sentiment analysis suggests pockets of hope that can be harnessed to rally support for constructive initiatives.